A Weekend of Upsets?
Lord, I was born a gambling man. I hate games of chance, but I love an
intellectual gamble. Guys like me look for something called an overlay,
which is a proposition that gives us favorable odds on a situation we
think will come out to our liking. An overlay is a bet that gives us good
value. We live for these moments when the world gives us 5-1 on a matchup
that should be 2-1.
I have an ego, but not an exceptionally big one. Even when I sense an
overlay, I don't necessarily play it. I don't have the bankroll to bet
every intuition that comes to me, nor do I have the skill to be right
enough times to make those bets profitable. If you want to get into sports
betting, you'd better make it your full time job unless you want to throw
cash out the window. My job is to be a college professor, and I avoid the
temptation to gamble even when the situation seems exactly right. In my
life, I've never wagered over $20 on a sporting event other than horse
racing. I've bet $1000 on a single hand of poker and $500 on a single
horse race, but those moments have been few and far between in my life.
I'd love to be involved in the action, but I know what a degenerate
gambler is, and I know I'm lower middle class at best (my parents' wealth,
which I will probably inherit, notwithstanding), and I'm not going to
throw away my life on gambling and pray that logic will trump chance. But
I also understand gambling theory, and even if I don't have the guts,
stupidity, or cash to take advantage of those moments of truth, I
understand their existence.
I feel that this weekend may provide two of those moments, namely the
Mayweather-Baldomir bout and the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Carlos Baldomir is a 5-1 underdog against Floyd Mayweather. To me, that is
insanity. At worst, Baldomir should be 5-2. My friends, this is an
overlay. If the referee allows Baldomir to clutch, grab, foul, and brawl,
then he will maul Mayweather. If the referee is to Mayweather's liking,
and disallows infighting, then Baldomir still has a 4-1 chance or so to
win the bout on his own merits. I will not bet on this fight, because
that's not what I do, but if you are a boxing bettor, how can you pass
this up?
Invasor is a brilliant horse who is made to go 1 1/4 miles. Yet he is
going to be 6-1 in the Breeders' Cup Classic. There's a horse in the race
named Bernadini who will be the favorite in the race, probably at even
money, because people see him as a superhorse. And he is a super talent.
But he has never been looked in the eye and been pushed the way Invasor
will push him; the situation is not unlike Mayweather-Baldomir, since
Baldomir will push Mayweather as he has never been pushed before. I will
bet $100 on this race. I'm not sure if I'll do Invasor to win or if I'll
bet exactas, but I will get my money down on Invasor.
There's a lot of luck in gambling. That's why it's gambling. But I think
there will be more than a handful of people who will start with $100 on
Saturday and wind up with $3000 by betting on Invasor and Baldomir. I
won't be one of them. But if you've
got the guts, I hope you will.
posted by Mike Ezra @ 11:21 AM
4 comments
4 Comments:
I don't think 5-1 is extreme enough to contemplate a bet on Baldomir. Call me a cynic, but I can't see any way Baldomir could get the decision if he really deserved it. There's no doubt in my mind that Jose Luis Castillo beat Floyd Mayweather 115-113 in their first fight, even though he lost the decision by five points on one card and four on the other two.
In 2002, Mayweather was a budding star. As of November 2006, Mayweather is the fighter the boxing establishment wants to become the Sugar Ray Leonard of this era. That won't happen, but he's still the best hope they have.
Since I can't see Baldomir stopping Mayweather, or out-boxing him, it's hard to make a case for him winning. The best case is he goes the distance, possibly causing Mayweather to look more good than great.
As I write this, I don't think Mike would have trouble getting Baldomir and 5-1 from me.
I agree with Charles, Castillo is a better fighter than Baldomir, I'm just not as sure that equates to it being an easier fight. One difference between Castillo and Baldomir is, Castillo is more predictable and structured. I love seeing awkward fighters that come from crazy angles like Baldomir, fight sound cuties like Mayweather. Sometimes, unconventional fighters can really annoy and trouble versatile gifted boxers like Mayweather. Not always, but it happens enough that it's worth keeping an eye on during the fight.
However, Mayweather has excellent basics and hand speed. If he doesn't stray far outside of his solid foundation, his hand speed, along with his straight and accurate punch placement, should keep Baldomir a step behind a majority of the fight.
I don't think it's a reach to envision Baldomir making the fight interesting, but wining it is.
You know what fight Baldomir-Mayweather reminds me of?
Leonard-Kalule
Anyone else see that?
Mike, I think Ali-Bonavena resembles Mayweather-Baldomir more so than Leonard-Kalule.
With both of us being Ali fans, we don't need to be reminded of how ordinary he looked against Bonavena through 14 rounds. Mayweather's fundamentals and basics are better than Ali's were. On the other hand, Bonavena was better than Baldomir. Not to mention more awkward and difficult to fight.
Mayweather will have less trouble with Baldomir than Ali did with Bonavena. However, I doubt he'll end the fight as dramatically. The left-hook Ali caught Bonavena with in the 15th round, is one of the best single shots he ever landed.
The downside of that punch was, it made him think he was a puncher. A mindset that worked to Frazier's advantage when they fought three months later.
I was just hit with a scary thought as I wrote this. What if Mayweather ends up having the chin, guts and toughness of Ali?
Hey, watch it Boyer! Some guy in the office just walked by and kicked my chair. I must have nodded off for a few seconds. What was I saying about Mayweather?
Quick comments: I was one of the minority of media people at Forrest-Quartey at the Garden in August who agreed with the judges and had Forrest winning, albeit by a lone point. He simply outworked Quartey enough to win the fight, IMHO.
I can't see a prime Wright doing less than Forrest, who was obviously a bit rusty and worn after being sidelined by injuries for two years and facing two lesser fighters before Quartey.
Mayweather-Castillo 1: I was still with Maxboxing when this fight took place. I saw it on TV and felt, like Frank and most other viewers, that Castillo won. But I called Doug Fischer who was at ringside, and he said much of the media (I forget if it was a majority or not) had Mayweather winning because he slipped many of Castillo's blows and was far more accurate and effective with his own. Those are the kinds of things that are harder to notice on TV than live and ringside, especially when you are viewing from a barstool.
I expect Mayweather to win big but to be tested at times tonight. If it goes more or less as I anticipate, I hope Mayweather finally gets the recognition as not only the best pound-for-pound, but the best so far this decade.
There is plenty to hate in boxing, but Mayweather, especially now at 29 as he matures, should be treasured. As good as guys like Guzman and Arce may be, I also don't see another Mayweather on the horizon, at least from the U.S.
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