Will Speed + Activity + Toughness = Calzaghe win

This Saturday night one of the most successful boxing careers in history may finally end. During the 20 years that Bernard Hopkins has been a professional fighter, he's been a world champ for 12 of it's last 13. On top of his excellence as a fighter inside the ring, Hopkins understands the business of boxing better than any fighter in boxing history. Think about Hopkins's credentials. He has a steel chin, remarkable endurance, can adjust to any style, and is as tough and durable as a fighter can be. And maybe what's most impressive is, at age 43, he's earning his biggest paydays, despite having a style that's difficult for casual boxing observers to appreciate, and lacks a Pepsodent smile or an Olympic Gold Medal to attract the big money behind the boxing establishment.

During Hopkins career, there's only one thing he never quite mastered in the ring, opponents with speed. He seemed to be fighting up hill versus Roy Jones in 1993, and to a lesser degree against Jermain Taylor in 2005. On the morning of April 20th 2008, the name Joe Calzaghe could very possibly be added to that short list.

And here's why:

In the 44-0 Calzahe, Hopkins is facing a fighter who doesn't know what it feels like to lose as a pro, and has also been a title holder/champ for the last 11 years. On top of that, Calzaghe is seven years younger, overcame a tough childhood and back ground like Hopkins, is every bit as tough, and maybe most importantly, Joe's faster and busier than Bernard at this stage of his career. Calzaghe's speed just may be the obstacle that the 43 year old Hopkins can't overcome. This is one fight where Hopkins attempting to make it a street fight might back fire. The Hopkins-Calzaghe fight will be decided by how well Hopkins can neutralize Calzaghe's speed and work rate. In his last two fights, Hopkins intimidated Antonio Tarver and then undressed him. In his next fight against Winky Wright, he made it a street fight early and Wright was taken out of his game, worrying more about what Hopkins was gonna do, instead of what he had to do. Against Calzaghe, Hopkins not only has to overcome the two-headed monster of Calzaghe's speed and work rate, he has to try and break him mentally. If his only task where taking away Joe's activity and speed, I wouldn't be surprised, but breaking him mentally will be his toughest task.

Since Hopkins first fought for a world title, I picked Roy Jones to decision him in 1993, and he did. I also thought Antonio Tarver would decision him in 2006, and it was Hopkins who won by decision. I did pick Jermain Taylor to beat him in 2005, but that was a pick for the establishment to beat him, moreso than Taylor. In two fights, neither Bernard or Jermain can claim a conclusive victory over the other. So I'm officially 1-1 picking against Hopkins.

I've always said Hopkins will not go out on top as champion. For that to become a reality, he has to lose to Calzaghe on April 19th. If Hopkins wins, there'll be no rematch. However, if Calzaghe wins, there may be one, meaning Bernard goes out losing his last two. And that's the scenario that I think most likely unfolds. That said, I'm not comfortable picking against Hopkins, and I surely wouldn't bet against him, even in this spot.