Pavlik-Hopkins: Hopkins wins, Hopkins wins

This weekend Bernard Hopkins will earn another significant pay-day participating in a fight he probably can't win, but also is not likely to get hurt. On top of that, a loss to 26 year-old Kelly Pavlik won't tarnish the legacy of the 43 year-old Hopkins. And lastly, a win by Hopkins really shouldn't be considered an upset.

The last time we saw Hopkins, he was out-hustled by Joe Calzaghe en-route to losing a decision and his light heavyweight title. However, Calzaghe is a veteran of 20 plus title fights, was a south-paw, and is more versatile than the bigger punching Pavlik. This will be Pavlik's fourth title bout, and it's a fact that he's never been in the ring with another fighter like Hopkins. That said, Pavlik's strength and youth should be enough to get by Hopkins, who can fight no more than four or five rounds out of a 12-round bout.

Pavlik's punching power will no doubt keep Hopkins focused, and fighting more to make Pavlik look bad, instead of beating him up. Most likely Hopkins attack plan is to bring Pavlik to him, while making himself to appear to be right there, but hard to reach. Hoping to force Pavlik into over committing and leaving him vulnerable to Hopkins counters. Pavlik is pretty vanilla style-wise, which is a big tactical advantage for Hopkins.

I expect Pavlik to win the fight, but I do believe because of styles, Hopkins will get more clean shots at Pavlik than he did Calzaghe. I just don't think it will be enough. Bernard Hopkins is just too smart and good to get his ass kicked by Kelly Pavlik. He's just not good enough in 2008 to beat him. Having said that, I wouldn't bet on this fight unless it was with someone else's money.

Regardless of the out-come, Hopkins wins. If he loses, he'll leave the ring with another big pay-day along with his legacy. If he wins, he'll leave the ring with a bigger legacy, and set up for another huge pay-day against a fighter who will be favored to beat him, but one he's capable of beating.

Hopkins Wins, Hopkins Wins!

Pavlik-Hopkins

Pavlik-Hopkins. October 18. Atlantic City. HBO Pay-Per-View.

Are you excited yet?

Pavlik-Taylor, Too

Not a bad fight, but not as exciting, no knockdowns, no real fireworks, yet the same victor.

Why did Taylor not let his hands go more? He corrected some of his major flaws of the past, but maybe at the expense of aggressiveness.

Pavlik finally looked human, but also beatable by a more active fighter. He remains unbeaten in 33 pro fights, but his impressive knockout streak ends at nine.

Next for Pavlik will be someone chosen to be KTFO, like John Duddy or Felix Trinidad. Taylor supposedly will go to 168, with HBO pushing Taylor-Kessler.

2008 is just not 2007.

Passion

Yesterday, Thursday, was Valentine's Day, which is supposed to be the day of passion, at least according to the chocolate and greeting card merchants. Friday night is supposed to be a night of fights on American television, so perhaps all the passion was spent the previous day, as the main events on both Telefutura and ESPN2 hardly made anybody fall in love.

On Telefutura, Mike Alvarado won a decision over Jesus Rodriguez, while over on ESPN2's declining Friday Night Fights series, Delvin Rodriguez (presumably no relation to Jesus -- Rodriguez, that is) won a decision over 41-year-old Troy Browning. ESPN2's announcer Joe Tessitore called Delvin's performance "workmanlike," a term regurgitated on Fightnews. That’s p.r. speak for mundane, uneventful, and ordinary. Nobody would ever call the measured performances of the victors tonight passionate.

I kept the TV on ESPN2 after FNF finished, mainly because I was staying home for the evening (sorry, my darlin’ bartenders), and planned to watch some other shows later, including perhaps the Pavlik-Taylor 2 preview show and their first fight, which I had taped from HBO 1 and 2 while I was out hunting for salads. But Bowe-Holyfield 1, from 1992, came on next on ESPN2, so I kept watching.

This fight, of course, was Ring’s fight of the year, with the tenth round being named the round of the year. It pitted two then-undefeated heavyweights, both Americans and both former Olympians, against one another for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world.

Not only does stating the backgrounds and credentials of these heavyweight fighters sound so dated today, but the fight itself, although held just 15 years and two months ago, seems like it took place in a forgotten, distant era. Constant toe-to-toe action, jabs and body shots and uppercuts, with a few low blows and head butts thrown in, all made this a memorable affair.

Heavyweights? Americans? World champions? Passion, technique, and power? On what planet?

Saturday is Valuev-Liakhovich in Germany. There is a free, legal live stream of this fight, courtesy of the German network ARD, at: http://www.mdr.de/boxen-im-ersten/5071711.html. For us Yanks, it starts at 4:10 pm EST/1:10 PM PST. For everyone, don’t expect the passion to start at all.

Pavlik-Taylor 2 will likely have passion, as did their first encounter. But these Americans are middleweights, or, for this fight, middleweights plus four pounds. The creeping decline of American boxing has not yet hit all the weight classes, yet.

Next week is Klitschko-Ibragimov, two heavyweight titleholders from the former Soviet Union, and also two former Olympians. I expect a tactical battle where hopefully the expected lack of passion is compensated for, at least partially, by a steady, disciplined attack by one or both combatants.

If not, at least all these great old fights are pretty accessible. Then every day can be some sort of holiday, even if you can’t have chocolate and think greeting cards are part of a contrived commercial ritual.